Understanding the «Latino vote» in the US presidential elections

Tertulia, vol. 65

Hola. This is Barbara, your guide to the latest cultural news from the Spanish-speaking world. This week, I‘d like to examine what has commonly been denominated as «the Latino vote» in the last US presidential elections. Overall, Trump increased his share of the Latino vote to 45% nationwide, up substantially from 32% in his 2020 loss to Joe Biden. This is still not a democratic majority, but a remarkable turn, so let’s see what’s behind it.

Unpacking the «Latino vote» myth

When discussing election outcomes, it's common to refer to the Latino vote as a monolithic bloc. However, this oversimplifies the diverse experiences, backgrounds, and political leanings within the Latino community in the United States. The Latino population in the US is incredibly heterogeneous, encompassing people of various national origins, immigration statuses, socioeconomic backgrounds, and ideological convictions. However, with each election, the discussion about this voter group as a monolith becomes refreshed (just do a quick search with the words «Latino» and «monolith» on X). I recommend G. Cristina Mora's book Making Hispanics (2014) if you want to know more about how this unifying concept was created in the first place.

Hence, rather than viewing Latinos as a single voting group, it is more accurate to examine the nuanced trends and differences that emerge when disaggregating the data. The regional and cultural distinctions significantly shape political preferences and voting patterns within the broader Latino electorate, as we will discuss further. This topic will gain even more prominence in the future since this voter group is growing steadily.

Before we start the analysis, I’d like to clarify my terms because sometimes you will come across different concepts when talking about the very same voter group. Some use the adjective «Latino or Latina» retaining the grammatical structures of the Spanish language while others prefer the plain English term «Hispanic». The Encyclopedia Britannica makes the following differentiation:

In the United States the terms "Hispanic" and "Latino" (or "Latina" for a woman; sometimes written as “Latinx” to be gender-neutral) were adopted in an attempt to loosely group immigrants and their descendants who hail from this part of the world. The terms are often used interchangeably, though the words can convey slightly different connotations. It is important to clarify that the categories refer only to a person's origin and ancestry. A Latino/-a or Hispanic person can be any race or color.

This definition follows that of the US Census Bureau, which allows people to self-identify as «Hispanic or Latino.» While «Latino» stresses more the regional origin of a person, regardless of the language they speak, «Hispanic» stresses the common denominator of speaking or having spoken Spanish in the country of origin/ancestry. In addition, I’d like to stress that Hispanic Americans have settled in the United States for many generations and often date back to the Spanish colonisation of a certain area before the US took over power there. I use «Latino vote» with a grammatical structure based on the English language in this article because it seems to be the more frequent term used in the post-election analyses of the media, but I generally prefer «Hispanic» to increase readability since the English term creates fewer discussions about if and how to gender it.

Okay, enough of clarifying definitions. Let’s analyse the Latino vote.

Key Trends in the Latino Vote

1. Increased Support for the Republican Party: While Latinos have traditionally been leaning Democratic, the 2024 election saw a shift, with former President Trump making inroads and capturing a larger Latino vote than in 2016 and 2020. This was especially pronounced among Latino men and Cuban Americans. It is also remarkable that the Latino vote was decisive in some Swing states like Pennsylvania and Arizona.

I am well aware that some Latino communities lean toward more conservative policies (especially regarding the regulation of the economy and from my personal experience also regarding abortion, even though the latest survey does not support this view on the latter topic). However, the overall shift towards Trump somehow surprised me because he and his campaign had dealt very negatively with Latinos, with controversial policies and rhetoric around immigration that were seen as hostile by many in the Latino community. It peaked at the infamous gathering of the Trump campaign at Madison Square Garden where comic Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico, a territory of the United States, an «island of garbage». Here’s Lin-Manuel Miranda’s reaction to this insult.

Therefore, the Harris campaign courted the Latino vote in the last days of the campaign to increase the margins from the 2020 election. As we know as of today, this has not led to the desired outcome.

2. Generational and Socioeconomic Divides: Younger Latinos and those with higher levels of education and income were more likely to support Kamala Harris. Older Latinos and those with less formal education or lower incomes were more receptive to the Republican message. Please, note, data in the figure below are from a pre-election survey.

3. Variations by National Origin: Cubans in South Florida, and Mexicans in the Southwest and in California exhibited distinct voting patterns, with the former group leaning more conservative compared to the latter. Many well-to-do Americans of Venezuelan ancestry also voted for Trump because they fled a Socialist country and are often more neoliberal than most Republicans when it comes to the economy. Journalist Germania Rodríguez Poleo has even created a name for this group: Magazuelans (Venezuelans supporting MAGA policies). Frankie Miranda, president of the Hispanic Federation and Luis A. Miranda, Jr., chair of the Latino Victory Foundation, explain some key variations depending on national origin. One that stands out to me is the following:

For instance, when asked which candidate will protect democracy and uphold the Constitution, Mexican-Americans say Harris by a 37-point margin. Cuban-Americans say Trump by an 8-point margin, which is no small feat for a former president indicted for his role in the January 6th insurrection at the Capitol.

Perspectives from the Latino Community

What are the reasons for this big change? The Pew Research offers the following top reasons why so many of the diverse community voted for Trump and the Republicans. Most have experienced that the good macroeconomic data of the last two years have not reached their own purses. It is also noteworthy that apparently most of these voters whose ancestors left their home countries for security reasons were susceptible to disinformation campaigns about a lack of security in their neighbourhoods due to gang violence of illegal immigrants (as a matter of fact, data suggest that violence has fallen.)

El Pais has gathered some notable personal voices from the Latino Community of why they voted for Trump supporting the statistical data from above.

In addition, Representative Maria Salazar, a Republican from Florida, self-confidently and proudly explains in this interview why Trump’s message resonated with so many Latino voters.

In contrast, the liberal nutritionist Susana Abad from Washington D.C. (quoted as an example of a person with a certain level of outreach and engagement on X) struggled with the outcome of the elections because she interprets it as a lack of solidarity in her community for the new immigrants:

Screenshot of a Tweet by Susana Abad, the translation can be found in the ALT text.

Conclusion

The Latino vote is a complex and nuanced subject that defies simplistic generalizations. As the Latino population in the US continues to grow and diversify, understanding the multifaceted nature of Latino political preferences will be crucial for candidates, policymakers, and political analysts alike. By acknowledging the heterogeneity within this community, we can gain a more accurate and meaningful understanding of its role in shaping the country's political landscape.

This is all for today. I’d love to hear your impressions and comments about the elections in the US and its effects on Hispanic or Latino communities in the next four years.